maandag, september 19, 2005

SPD has upper hand

Some more quick thoughts.

Schroeder plainly has the upper hand in negotiations with the CDU over any Grand Coalition, and could quite easily remain Chancellor. Although the SPD and Greens have repeatedly said they refuse to enter into any coalition with them, the current SPD-Green government can continue without change with support from the Linkspartei. Alternately, there is the SPD-Green-FDP 'traffic light' coalition possibility. Now, there is no love lost between the FDP and the Greens, and the leader of the FDP has repeatedly said he refuses to work with Fischer's gang, but the party itself is champing at the bit for a chance at government after seven years in the wilderness.

In any case, Schroeder theoretically has three options, while the CDU has only one - a Grand Coalition with the SPD.

Now, plainly, Schroeder's preferred option is coalition with the CDU, so it may well be the chancellorship that the conservatives have to sacrifice in order to join the government.

(Hmm. I suppose the CDU actually has a second, if far-fetched option: CDU-FDP-Greens - the 'Jamaica' option. Theoretically possible, but I just don't see it.)


Interesting (wholely unscientific) poll at Fistful of Euros on the most likely coalition grouping voted on by readers. Now, Fistful's readers stretch across the political spectrum; nonetheless, they feel the most likely possibility is a continuance of the current government - SPD-Green - with the Linkspartei supporting.

Also - that promised Galloway-Hitch commentary? Coming up, if y'all're still interested.